About

Operational energy yield assessment

Transparent, source-led estimates of operational GB wind performance, with every input and assumption traceable to a public or licensed source.

Data sources

Transparent input model

These source datasets are publicly available under their providers' terms. Registration, authentication or access conditions may apply; public availability does not mean unrestricted reuse.

Asset Register

DESNZ / REPD: plant metadata, capacity observations, site identity and evidence used for physical-asset matching.
Ofgem station and certificate reports: regulatory asset records, station linkage and report-based generation history.
BMU metadata and configuration events: current-configuration identity, historical configuration context and source linkage. Site-specific evidence is linked in each assessment's Configuration & datasets tab.

Generation

Elexon B1610 / BMU generation: settlement-period metered generation and source identity for operational analysis.
Elexon Insights: metered generation and operational record lookups used to validate generation histories.
Monthly certificate records: Ofgem REGO/ROC source qualification basis and monthly energy where hourly meter data are not available.

Curtailments

NESO BOA: Wind BOA balancing-market volumes and operational evidence used to separate confirmed curtailment from inferred unknown losses.
Operational loss categories: observed generation, confirmed curtailment, import/export effects and inferred unknown-cause losses remain distinct in the assessment.

Resource

ERA5, CERRA and MERRA-2 point histories are accessed through Brightwind's BrightHub service. JRA-3Q is accessed through NCAR GDEX. The underlying provider terms and access requirements continue to apply.

BrightHub — access and data-preparation layer for the resource archive.
BrightHub API documentation — point-history access and authentication requirements.
ERA5 — Copernicus Climate Data Store reanalysis; ECMWF/Copernicus terms apply.
CERRA — Copernicus regional reanalysis; ECMWF/Copernicus terms apply.
MERRA-2 — NASA GMAO reanalysis product; NASA Earthdata terms and access policy apply.
JRA-3Q — JMA reanalysis archive; provider documentation and terms apply.
NCAR GDEX JRA-3Q data access — hourly archive used by this project.

Source data are retained with provenance and versioning where possible. All inputs and results are operational estimates rather than audited accounting data.

Methodology

How this assessment works

Calton Works assesses GB wind assets using the current plant configuration only. Earlier configurations remain visible for context but are excluded from fitting, calibration and the default loss assumptions.

At least three complete eligible months are required before a result is considered publishable. Short-record results remain visible as provisional and are labelled as such.

Hourly assessments keep measured generation, confirmed BM curtailment and inferred unknown-cause losses separately traceable. Monthly certificate assessments use the applicable monthly energy basis without inventing additional hourly reconstruction.

Forecasts are model-based deterministic central estimates based on observed data, selected months, explicit loss assumptions and the chosen scenario settings. They are not guarantees of future generation or statistically established P50 values. Assumptions remain visible and reproducible for all users.

Licensing

Code, data and results

Code: The application code is licensed under the GNU Affero General Public License v3.
Repository: Source is available at github.com/CaltonWorks/calton-works-oeyas.
Data: Input datasets are subject to their own licensing, provenance and provider terms. Use of external source data must comply with those licenses and restrictions.
Assessment results: Calton Works' model-generated assessment results are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). You may share and adapt these results, including commercially, provided you credit Calton Works, link to the licence and indicate any changes. This licence does not relicense third-party source datasets or override their terms.

Disclaimer

Interpreting model-based estimates

Results: This tool provides independent model-based estimates derived from public datasets and generic assumptions. Results are intended for benchmarking, screening and research purposes only and may differ materially from owner, lender, consultant or operator assessments.
No guarantee: Calculated long-term generation and forecasts are conditional model outputs, not promises of actual future production. Results are provisional, are not statistically established P50 values, and are not audited statements, contractual performance guarantees or investment recommendations. They do not replace project-specific technical, financial or investment due diligence.

See a result that differs significantly from your expectations? We'd be interested to understand why. Contact Calton Works to discuss the assumptions or request a project-specific assessment.

Monthly publication

Hourly loss reconstruction is fixed offline across all eligible complete months. Visitor selections recalculate monthly calibration and historical loss rates, without refitting the hourly curve. Public downloads contain monthly data only.